By Central Intelligence Agency (CIA),Center for the Study of Intelligence,Rob Johnston
He reaches these conclusions in the course of the cautious systems of an anthropologist—conducting actually countless numbers of interviews and watching and taking part in dozens of labor teams in intelligence analysis—and so that they can't simply be brushed aside as mere opinion, nonetheless much less because the sour mutterings of these who've misplaced out within the bureaucratic wars. His findings represent not only a robust indictment of ways American intelligence plays research, but additionally, and fortunately, a advisor for a way to do better.
Johnston reveals no baseline normal analytic approach. as a substitute, the commonest perform is to behavior constrained brainstorming at the foundation of earlier research, therefore generating a bias towards confirming past perspectives. The validating of information is questionable—for example, the Directorate of Operations' (DO) "cleaning" of undercover agent studies does not allow trying out in their validity—reinforcing the tendency to appear for info that confirms, no longer refutes, triumphing hypotheses. the method is threat averse, with massive managerial conservatism. there's even more emphasis on fending off mistakes than on imagining surprises. The analytic technique is pushed by means of present intelligence, specifically the CIA's crown jewel analytic product, the President's day-by-day short (PDB), that can be caricatured as "CNN plus secrets." Johnston does not placed it really that manner, however the Intelligence group does extra reporting than in-depth analysis.
None of the analytic firms is familiar with a lot in regards to the analytic strategies of the others. In all, there has a tendency to be even more emphasis on writing and communique abilities than on analytic equipment. education is pushed extra by means of the druthers of person analysts than through any strategic view of the companies and what they wish. so much education is on-the-job.
Johnston identifies the wishes for research of at the least 3 forms of consumers—cops, spies, and squaddies. the desires of these shoppers produce at the least 3 detailed forms of intelligence—investigative or operational, strategic, and tactical.
The examine indicates the necessity for critical research of analytic equipment throughout all 3, guided by way of expert methodologists. Analysts must have many extra possibilities to do fieldwork in a foreign country. they need to additionally stream even more usually around the business enterprise "stovepipes" they now inhabit. those hobbies could provide them a richer feel for the way different businesses do analysis.
CHAPTER ONE - Definitions * bankruptcy - Findings * bankruptcy 3 - A Taxonomy of Intelligence Variables * bankruptcy 4 - trying out the Intelligence Cycle via structures Modeling and Simulation * bankruptcy 5 - Integrating Methodologists into groups of specialists * bankruptcy SIX - The query of international Cultures: struggling with Ethnocentrism in Intelligence research * bankruptcy SEVEN - tutorial know-how: Effectiveness and Implications for the Intelligence neighborhood * bankruptcy 8 - Organizational tradition: Anticipatory Socialization and Intelligence Analysts * bankruptcy 9 - techniques: step one: spotting A basic challenge * bankruptcy TEN - Survey method * bankruptcy 11 - Q-Sort technique * bankruptcy TWELVE - The "File-Drawer" challenge and Calculation of impact Size
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Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community: An Ethnographic Study - Working as an Intelligence Analyst, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Intelligence Papers by Central Intelligence Agency (CIA),Center for the Study of Intelligence,Rob Johnston